Borrell C, Plasència A, Thió S, Martí-Recober M
Servei d'Epidemiologia i Estadístiques Vitals, Institut Municipal de la Salut de Barcelona.
Gac Sanit. 1991 Jan-Feb;5(22):6-16.
The purpose of this work is to build a prediction model of weekly general mortality in Barcelona, using weekly burials as a quick indirect indicator of mortality, and to illustrate its use in the detection of a suspected epidemic of influenza. Mortality data have been modelled following the methodology proposed by Box and Jenkins, and have been regressed using a simple linear model against burial data, so that for every week the expected number of deaths is computed. The model identified that best fitted mortality data was an ARI-MA (3,0,0). The lineal regression model relating mortality and burial data was deaths = 15.94 + 0.80 burials. The use of this methodology allowed the detection of the increase in deaths which occurred during an influenza epidemic in the beginning of 1987. This method allows the rapid weekly monitoring of mortality in a well defined geographic area, and it is a potentially useful tool to support public health departments in their epidemiologic surveillance responsibilities.
这项工作的目的是构建巴塞罗那每周总体死亡率的预测模型，使用每周的葬礼作为死亡率的快速间接指标，并说明其在检测疑似流感疫情中的应用。死亡率数据按照Box和Jenkins提出的方法进行建模，并使用简单线性模型与葬礼数据进行回归，以便计算出每周的预期死亡人数。该模型确定最适合死亡率数据的是ARI-MA(3,0,0)。将死亡率与葬礼数据相关联的线性回归模型为：死亡人数=15.94+0.80×葬礼次数。这种方法的使用能够检测到1987年初流感疫情期间发生的死亡人数增加情况。该方法允许对一个明确界定的地理区域内的死亡率进行每周快速监测，并且是支持公共卫生部门履行其流行病学监测职责的一个潜在有用工具。
