University of Zululand, South Africa.
Mar Environ Res. 2010 Aug;70(2):162-70. doi: 10.1016/j.marenvres.2010.04.006. Epub 2010 Apr 21.
We describe marine climate variability off the east coast of Africa in the context of fish catch statistics for Tanzania and Kenya. The time series exhibits quasi-decadal cycles over the period 1964-2007. Fish catch is up when sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric humidity are below normal in the tropical West Indian Ocean. This pattern relates to an ocean Rossby wave in one phase of its east-west oscillation. Coastal-scale analyses indicate that northward currents and uplift on the shelf edge enhance productivity of East African shelf waters. Some of the changes are regulated by the south equatorial current that swings northward from Madagascar. The weather is drier and a salty layer develops in high catch years. While the large-scale West Indian Ocean has some impact on East African fish catch, coastal dynamics play a more significant role. Climatic changes are reviewed using 200 years of past and projected data. The observed warming trend continues to increase such that predicted SST may reach 30 degrees C by 2100 while SW monsoon winds gradually increase, according to a coupled general circulation model simulation with a gradual doubling of CO(2).
我们根据坦桑尼亚和肯尼亚的渔业统计数据描述了非洲东海岸的海洋气候变化。在 1964-2007 年期间，时间序列表现出准十年周期。当热带西印度洋的海面温度（SST）和大气湿度低于正常水平时，鱼类捕捞量就会增加。这种模式与海洋罗斯贝波在其东西摆动的一个阶段有关。沿海尺度分析表明，沿架边缘的北向海流和抬升增强了东非架水域的生产力。一些变化受从马达加斯加向北摆动的南赤道流调节。在渔获量高的年份，天气干燥，形成一层咸水。虽然大规模的西印度洋对东非的鱼类捕捞有一定影响，但沿海动力起着更为重要的作用。利用过去 200 年和预测数据审查了气候变化。观测到的变暖趋势继续增加，根据一个耦合的大气环流模型模拟，到 2100 年预测的 SST 可能达到 30 摄氏度，而西南季风逐渐增强，二氧化碳逐渐增加一倍。
