Monogr Soc Res Child Dev. 2010 Apr;75(1):187-211. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-5834.2010.00556.x.
Throughout this monograph, there has been frequent reference to levels of risk, inference of causation, testing for mediating variables, and the need to consider possible moderating influences. In this chapter, we review what is meant by these concepts, and then seek to pull together the findings from the English and Romanian Adoptee (ERA) studies that were relevant for these issues. When the findings have been presented in detail in earlier chapters, we simply summarize the main salient points. However, with respect to possible genetic moderation of the effects of institutional deprivation, we present new data because these were not considered in earlier chapters. There was a time when most developmental research, particularly that dealing with social development, moved blithely ahead using cross-sectional studies to investigate developmental processes without consideration of the multiple complex ways in which these processes may work together or separately. That is no longer acceptable (Kraemer et al., 1997; Kraemer, Stice, Kazdin, Offord, & Kupfer, 2001; Murray, Farrington, & Eisner, 2009; Rutter, 1988, 2009). Not only must the various processes, and their interplay, be clearly conceptualized, but also it will be essential to pit different refutable causal hypotheses against each other (Lahey, D'Onofrio, & Waldman, 2009; Rutter, 2003, 2006b).
在本专论中,经常提到风险水平、因果关系推断、中介变量检验以及考虑可能的调节影响的必要性。在本章中,我们将回顾这些概念的含义,然后试图总结与这些问题相关的英国和罗马尼亚收养研究(ERA)的研究结果。当这些发现已经在前面的章节中详细介绍时,我们只是总结主要的要点。然而,关于机构剥夺对遗传影响的可能调节作用,我们提出了新的数据,因为这些在前面的章节中没有考虑到。曾经有一段时间,大多数发展研究,特别是涉及社会发展的研究,在没有考虑到这些过程可能以多种复杂方式共同或单独运作的情况下,轻率地使用横断面研究来研究发展过程。这已经不再被接受(Kraemer 等人,1997;Kraemer、Stice、Kazdin、Offord 和 Kupfer,2001;Murray、Farrington 和 Eisner,2009;Rutter,1988,2009)。不仅必须清楚地概念化各种过程及其相互作用,而且还必须将不同的可反驳的因果假设相互对立(Lahey、D'Onofrio 和 Waldman,2009;Rutter,2003,2006b)。