Equipe Raisonnement Induction Statistique, Laboratoire de Mathématiques Raphaël Salem, UMR 6085 CNRS, Université de Rouen, Saint-Etienne-du-Rouvray, France.
Psychol Methods. 2010 Jun;15(2):158-71. doi: 10.1037/a0015915.
P. R. Killeen's (2005a) probability of replication (prep) of an experimental result is the fiducial Bayesian predictive probability of finding a same-sign effect in a replication of an experiment. prep is now routinely reported in Psychological Science and has also begun to appear in other journals. However, there is little concrete, practical guidance for use of prep, and the procedure has not received the scrutiny that it deserves. Furthermore, only a solution that assumes a known variance has been implemented. A practical problem with prep is identified: In many articles, prep appears to be incorrectly computed, due to the confusion between 1-tailed and 2-tailed p values. Experimental findings reveal the risk of misinterpreting prep as the predictive probability of finding a same-sign and significant effect in a replication (p srep). Conceptual and practical guidelines are given to avoid these pitfalls. They include an extension to the case of unknown variance. Moreover, other uses of fiducial Bayesian predictive probabilities for analyzing, designing ("how many subjects?"), and monitoring ("when to stop?") experiments are presented. Concluding remarks emphasize the role of predictive procedures in statistical methodology.
P.R. Killeen（2005a）的实验结果再现概率（prep）是在实验再现中找到同号效应的置信贝叶斯预测概率。prep 现在已在《心理科学》中例行报告，并开始出现在其他期刊上。然而，对于 prep 的使用几乎没有具体的、实用的指导，该程序也没有得到应有的审查。此外，仅实现了假设已知方差的解决方案。一个实际的问题是，在许多文章中，由于 1 尾和 2 尾 p 值之间的混淆，prep 似乎被错误地计算。实验结果揭示了将 prep 误解为在再现中找到同号和显著效应的预测概率（p srep）的风险。给出了避免这些陷阱的概念和实践指南。它们包括对未知方差情况的扩展。此外，还介绍了置信贝叶斯预测概率在分析、设计（“需要多少个主体？”）和监测（“何时停止？”）实验中的其他用途。结束语强调了预测程序在统计方法中的作用。
