Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Curr Opin HIV AIDS. 2010 Jul;5(4):269-76. doi: 10.1097/COH.0b013e32833a51b2.
To discuss the role of mathematical models of sexual transmission of HIV: the methods used and their impact.
We use mathematical modelling of 'universal test and treat' as a case study to illustrate wider issues relevant to all modelling of sexual HIV transmission.
Mathematical models are used extensively in HIV epidemiology to deduce the logical conclusions arising from one or more sets of assumptions. Simple models lead to broad qualitative understanding, whereas complex models can encode more realistic assumptions and, thus, be used for predictive or operational purposes. An overreliance on model analysis in which assumptions are untested and input parameters cannot be estimated should be avoided. Simple models providing bold assertions have provided compelling arguments in recent public health policy, but may not adequately reflect the uncertainty inherent in the analysis.
讨论 HIV 性传播的数学模型的作用:使用的方法及其影响。
我们使用“普遍检测和治疗”的数学模型作为案例研究来说明与所有 HIV 性传播数学模型都相关的更广泛的问题。
数学模型在 HIV 流行病学中被广泛用于推断出由一组或多组假设产生的逻辑结论。简单的模型导致广泛的定性理解,而复杂的模型可以编码更现实的假设,因此可以用于预测或操作目的。应避免过度依赖未经测试假设且输入参数无法估计的模型分析。简单的模型提供了大胆的断言,为最近的公共卫生政策提供了有力的论据,但可能无法充分反映分析中固有的不确定性。