Determinants of one-year outcome from balloon aortic valvuloplasty.

Balloon aortic valvuloplasty (BAV) has been a therapeutic alternative treatment for severe symptomatic aortic stenosis. Previous studies have been unable to predict 1-year outcome because of limited acute and follow-up clinical, invasive and echocardiographic data. The purpose of this study was to predict long-term outcome based on comprehensive data obtained at the time of valvuloplasty and at 3 and 6 months after the procedure. Of 170 consecutive patients undergoing BAV, 108 (mean age 78 years) were at least 1 year from their procedure. Prospective clinical, micromanometer hemodynamic, digital ventriculographic and echocardiographic/Doppler data were collected at baseline and immediately after the procedure. Echocardiographic data were also obtained at 3 and 6 months. With use of Cox model analysis, major events (defined as cardiac death [n = 30], aortic valve replacement [n = 21] or repeat BAV [n = 13]) were predicted by advanced age, baseline heart failure class, and baseline echocardiographic-determined diastolic left ventricular diameter. Only baseline left ventricular ejection fraction proved to be a significant predictor of cardiac death (p = 0.002) in a multivariate model. Absolute values after BAV (stroke work, first derivative of left ventricular pressure, valve area, end-systolic volume, Fick cardiac output, transvalvular gradient) and acute changes measured by catheterization or echocardiography did not provide additional predictive information over that of post procedure ejection fraction. Similarly, echocardiographic valve area and transvalvular gradient at 3 months added no further prognostic data. With an ejection fraction greater than or equal to 45% (n = 63), cardiac survival at 1 year was 80%, irrespective of age, sex, congestive heart failure class or severity of coronary artery disease.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)