University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin 53726, USA.
Emerg Infect Dis. 2010 Jul;16(7):1108-15. doi: 10.3201/eid1607.091785.
Malaria is the most prevalent vector-borne disease in the Amazon. We used malaria reports for health districts collected in 2006 by the Programa Nacional de Controle da Malaria to determine whether deforestation is associated with malaria incidence in the county (municipio) of Mancio Lima, Acre State, Brazil. Cumulative percent deforestation was calculated for the spatial catchment area of each health district by using 60 x 60-meter, resolution-classified imagery. Statistical associations were identified with univariate and multivariate general additive negative binomial models adjusted for spatial effects. Our cross-sectional study shows malaria incidence across health districts in 2006 is positively associated with greater changes in percentage of cumulative deforestation within respective health districts. After adjusting for access to care, health district size, and spatial trends, we show that a 4.2%, or 1 SD, change in deforestation from August 1997 through August 2001 is associated with a 48% increase of malaria incidence.
疟疾是亚马逊地区最普遍的虫媒传染病。我们利用 2006 年国家疟疾控制规划收集的卫生区疟疾报告，来确定巴西阿克里州曼西奥利马县（municipio）的森林砍伐是否与疟疾发病率有关。通过使用 60 x 60 米的分辨率分类图像，计算了每个卫生区的空间集水区的累计森林砍伐百分比。采用单变量和多变量广义附加负二项式模型，调整了空间效应，确定了统计关联。我们的横断面研究表明，2006 年各卫生区的疟疾发病率与各自卫生区累计森林砍伐百分比的变化呈正相关。在调整了获得医疗保健的机会、卫生区的规模和空间趋势后，我们发现，从 1997 年 8 月至 2001 年 8 月，森林砍伐率变化 4.2%（即标准差的 1 倍），疟疾发病率增加 48%。
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