Tarcă M
Rev Med Chir Soc Med Nat Iasi. 1990 Jan-Mar;94(1):209-21.
The history of, and prospect for, world population growth is presented in this study. The study is based mainly on data compiled and published in the last years by the population Division, the Food and Agriculture Organisation, the International Labour Organisation of the United Nations and the World Bank. The population of the world grew from about 300 million at the beginning of the Christian era to half billion in 1650 to one billion in 1800, to two billion in 1927, to three billion in 1960, to four billion in 1974, and to five billion in 1987. According to the medium variant of the United Nations projections the population of the world will reach six billion in 1988, seven billion in 2010, eight in 2023, nine in 2050, and ten around 2100. This number demonstrate the acceleration growth rate of world population which is explained be the theory of demographic transition. In 1985 developing countries had 3663 million persons or about three-fourths of the total population of the world. According to medium variant of projection the less-developed areas would increase their population to 4845 person by the end of the century or by four-fifths of the total. In contrast the developed countries would increase from 1174 million persons in 1985 to only 1277 million in 2000. Examining estimates of total and per capita income we must be impressed with the wide difference between the wealthiest and the poorest countries. The developed countries having the highest average incomes have undergone industrialization and modernization of the economy; the developing countries with lowest incomes are those with a predominance of agriculture in most cases. Statistical data shows that the disparity between the prosperity of the industrial countries and the poverty of the preindustrial countries was increasing in the last two decades.
本研究介绍了世界人口增长的历史与前景。该研究主要基于联合国人口司、粮食及农业组织、国际劳工组织以及世界银行在过去几年汇编并发布的数据。世界人口从公元初的约3亿增长到1650年的5亿、1800年的10亿、1927年的20亿、1960年的30亿、1974年的40亿以及1987年的50亿。根据联合国预测的中等方案，世界人口将在1988年达到60亿、2010年达到70亿、2023年达到80亿、2050年达到90亿，并在2100年左右达到100亿。这一数字表明世界人口增长率在加快，这可以用人口转变理论来解释。1985年，发展中国家有36.63亿人口，约占世界总人口的四分之三。根据预测的中等方案，到本世纪末，欠发达地区的人口将增加到48.45亿，即增加五分之四。相比之下，发达国家的人口将从1985年的11.74亿增加到2000年的仅12.77亿。审视总收入和人均收入的估计数据，我们一定会对最富裕国家和最贫穷国家之间的巨大差异印象深刻。平均收入最高的发达国家经历了经济的工业化和现代化；收入最低的发展中国家在大多数情况下以农业为主。统计数据表明，在过去二十年中，工业国家的繁荣与前工业国家的贫困之间的差距在不断扩大。
