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通过预测埃及伊蚊产卵活动预防登革热疫情。

Prevention of dengue outbreaks through Aedes aegypti oviposition activity forecasting method.

机构信息

Centro de Investigaciones Entomológicas de Córdoba, Edificio de Investigaciones Biológicas y Tecnológicas, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas, Físicas y Naturales, Universidad Nacional de Córdoba, Córdoba, Argentina.

出版信息

Vector Borne Zoonotic Dis. 2011 May;11(5):543-9. doi: 10.1089/vbz.2009.0165. Epub 2010 Oct 6.

DOI:10.1089/vbz.2009.0165
PMID:20925528
Abstract

Dengue has affected the north provinces of Argentina, mainly Salta province. The 2009 outbreak, with 5 deaths and >27,000 infected, was the most important, and the first to extend into the central area of the country. This article includes research on seasonal Aedes aegypti abundance variation in Orán City (Salta province), and determination of the date of mosquito population increase and an estimation of the date of maximum rate of increase as well as the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r), to detect the optimal time to apply vector control measures. Between September 2005 and March 2007, ovitraps were randomly distributed in the city to collect Ae. aegypti eggs. The variation observed in the number of collected eggs was described by fitting a third-degree polynomial by the least square method, allowing to determine the time when population increase began (week 1), after the temperate and dry season. Eggs were collected throughout the year, with the highest variation in abundance during the warm and rainy season, and the maximum value registered in February 2007. The rate of increase of the number of eggs laid per week peaked between weeks 9 and 10 after the beginning of the population increase (week 1). Week 1 depends on temperature, it occurs after getting over the thermal threshold and the needed accumulation of 160 degree-day is reached. Consequently, week 1 changes depending on temperature. Peak abundance of eggs during 2005-2006 was recorded on week 15 (after week 1); during 2006-2007, the peak was observed on week 22. Estimation of the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) of Ae. aegypti is useful not only to determine optimal time to apply vector control measures with better cost-benefit, but also to add an insecticide control strategy against the vector to diminish the possibility of resistance.

摘要

登革热已影响到阿根廷北部省份,主要是萨尔塔省。2009 年的疫情是最严重的一次,造成 5 人死亡,超过 27000 人感染,疫情首次蔓延到该国中部地区。本文包括对萨尔塔省奥兰市季节埃及伊蚊丰度变化的研究,确定蚊虫种群增加的日期以及估计蚊密度最高增长率和内禀增长率(r),以发现应用病媒控制措施的最佳时机。2005 年 9 月至 2007 年 3 月,在该市随机分布诱卵器以收集埃及伊蚊卵。采用最小二乘法拟合三次多项式来描述所收集卵数的变化,从而确定种群增加开始的时间(第 1 周),即温和干燥季节之后。全年都在收集卵,在温暖多雨季节丰度变化最大,2007 年 2 月达到最大值。每周产卵数的增长率在种群增加开始后的第 9 至 10 周达到峰值(第 1 周)。第 1 周取决于温度,它发生在越过热阈值并达到所需的 160 度日的积累之后。因此,第 1 周随温度变化而变化。2005-2006 年期间,卵的最高丰度记录在第 15 周(第 1 周之后);2006-2007 年期间,峰值出现在第 22 周。估计埃及伊蚊的内禀增长率(r)不仅有助于确定应用病媒控制措施的最佳时机,以获得更好的成本效益,而且有助于增加针对病媒的杀虫剂控制策略,以降低产生抗药性的可能性。

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