Wald Nicholas J, Morris Joan K
Wolfson Institute of Preventive Medicine, Barts and the London School of Medicine and Dentistry, Queen Mary University of London, Charterhouse Square, England.
Arch Intern Med. 2011 Feb 28;171(4):286-91. doi: 10.1001/archinternmed.2010.378. Epub 2010 Oct 25.
Many risk factors for disease are suggested as screening tests when there is little prospect that they could be useful in predicting disease. To avoid this, it is useful to know the relationship between the relative risk of a disease or disorder in people with high and low values of a risk factor, and the equivalent screening performance in terms of the detection rate (sensitivity) for a specified false-positive rate. We describe an interactive Risk-Screening Converter, accessible from the Internet (http://www.wolfson.qmul.ac.uk/rsc/), that transforms an odds ratio into the equivalent estimates of detection and false-positive rates. The converter is intended for general clinicians, for people engaged in research into risk factors and disease, and for those who give advice on applying such research findings into medical practice. It should help to distinguish effective screening methods from ineffective ones, and so improve clinical guidelines relating to screening and the prediction and prevention of disease.
当某些疾病危险因素几乎没有可能用于预测疾病时，它们却被当作筛查测试提了出来。为避免这种情况，了解高风险因素值和低风险因素值人群中某种疾病或病症的相对风险之间的关系，以及在特定假阳性率下等效的筛查检测率（灵敏度）表现，是很有用的。我们介绍了一种交互式风险筛查转换器，可从互联网（http://www.wolfson.qmul.ac.uk/rsc/）获取，它能将比值比转换为检测率和假阳性率的等效估计值。该转换器适用于普通临床医生、从事危险因素和疾病研究的人员，以及那些就将此类研究结果应用于医疗实践提供建议的人。它应有助于区分有效的筛查方法和无效的筛查方法，从而改进与筛查以及疾病预测和预防相关的临床指南。
