Lieu T A, Fleisher G R, Schwartz J S
Dana Scholars Program, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia.
Pediatrics. 1990 Mar;85(3):246-56.
Decision analysis was used to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of four alternative strategies for management of pharyngitis in children ("treat all," "antigen test alone," "culture alone," "antigen test + culture"). In the model, estimates of test sensitivity and specificity, disease prevalence, treatment rates after positive test results, rates of complications for treated and untreated patient-cases, rates of antibiotic-induced complications, treatment effectiveness, and direct dollar costs of diagnosis and therapy were used. Results were expressed in terms of severe penicillin reactions per disease case prevented and dollars per complication prevented. Sensitivity analysis was performed to assess the impact of changes in parameter estimates on model outcomes. With treat all, 90% of streptococcal complications were prevented and there were low short-term direct dollar costs. However, treat all is associated with a high rate of penicillin allergy (70% of which occurs in uninfected children) and is the least cost-effective strategy when the costs of treating complications are included. The marginal cost of antigen test + culture is less than the cost of either one-test strategy. Antigen test + culture is the most cost-effective strategy when the costs of managing the complications of streptococcal infection are considered. Antigen test + culture is the most clinically effective strategy, and its benefits are obtained at a modest marginal cost relative to the one-test strategy.
决策分析被用于评估儿童咽炎四种替代管理策略(“全部治疗”、“仅进行抗原检测”、“仅进行培养”、“抗原检测 + 培养”)的成本效益。在该模型中,使用了检测敏感性和特异性的估计值、疾病患病率、检测结果呈阳性后的治疗率、已治疗和未治疗病例的并发症发生率、抗生素引起的并发症发生率、治疗效果以及诊断和治疗的直接美元成本。结果以每预防一例疾病所避免的严重青霉素反应数和每预防一例并发症的美元数来表示。进行了敏感性分析以评估参数估计值变化对模型结果的影响。采用“全部治疗”策略时,90% 的链球菌并发症得以预防,且短期直接美元成本较低。然而,“全部治疗”与高青霉素过敏率相关(其中70% 发生在未感染儿童中),并且当计入治疗并发症的成本时,它是成本效益最低的策略。抗原检测 + 培养的边际成本低于任何一种单一检测策略的成本。当考虑链球菌感染并发症的管理成本时,抗原检测 + 培养是最具成本效益的策略。抗原检测 + 培养是临床上最有效的策略,相对于单一检测策略,其益处是以适度的边际成本获得的。