Istituto di Ricerche Farmacologiche Mario Negri, Via Giuseppe La Masa 19, 20156 Milano, Italia.
Ann Epidemiol. 2010 Dec;20(12):898-905. doi: 10.1016/j.annepidem.2010.08.013.
To analyze the components of the favorable trends in gastric cancer in Europe.
From official certified deaths from gastric cancer and population estimates for 42 countries of the European geographical region, during the period 1950 to 2007, age-standardized death rates (World Standard Population) were computed, and an age-period-cohort analysis was performed.
Central and Northern countries with lower rates in the 2005 to 2007 period, such as France (5.28 and 1.93/100,000, men and women respectively) and Sweden (4.49 and 2.21/100,000), had descending period and cohort effects that decreased steeply from the earliest cohorts until those born in the 1940s, to then stabilize. Former nonmarket economy countries had mortality rates greater than 20/100,000 men and 10/100,000 women, and displayed a later start in the cohort effect fall, which continued in the younger cohorts. Mortality remained high in some countries of Southern and Eastern Europe.
The decrease in gastric cancer mortality was observed in both cohort and period effects but was larger in the cohorts, suggesting that the downward trends are likely to persist in countries with higher rates. In a few Western countries with very low rates an asymptote appears to have been reached for cohorts born after the 1940s, particularly in women.
分析欧洲胃癌有利趋势的构成因素。
从欧洲地理区域 42 个国家官方认证的胃癌死亡人数和人口估计数中，计算了 1950 年至 2007 年期间的年龄标准化死亡率（世界标准人口），并进行了年龄-时期-队列分析。
在 2005 年至 2007 年期间，法国（男性为 5.28 岁，女性为 1.93/100,000）和瑞典（男性为 4.49 岁，女性为 2.21/100,000）等较低发病率的中欧和北欧国家，时期和队列效应呈下降趋势，从最早的队列急剧下降到 20 世纪 40 年代出生的队列，然后稳定下来。前非市场经济国家的男性死亡率高于 20/100,000，女性死亡率高于 10/100,000，并且在队列效应下降方面的起始较晚，这种情况在年轻的队列中仍在继续。一些南欧和东欧国家的死亡率仍然很高。
在队列和时期效应中都观察到胃癌死亡率下降，但在队列中下降幅度更大，这表明在死亡率较高的国家，这种下降趋势可能会持续。在一些死亡率非常低的西方国家，尤其是在女性中，出生于 20 世纪 40 年代以后的队列似乎已经达到了渐近线。
