Service de Gynécologie Obstétrique, Hôpital Paule de Viguier, Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Toulouse, 330 Avenue de Grande-Bretagne, Toulouse, France.
Am J Obstet Gynecol. 2011 Mar;204(3):242.e1-8. doi: 10.1016/j.ajog.2010.09.030. Epub 2010 Nov 20.
The objective of the study was to develop a statistical model for predicting risk of preterm delivery after in utero transfer for threatened preterm delivery in tertiary care centers.
This study was an observational study including a total of 906 patients transferred for threatened preterm delivery at Paule-de-Viguier and Croix-Rousse University Hospitals. Clinical and sonographic data from 1 series were used to construct logistic regression models for predicting preterm delivery and were validated on an independent series. An Internet-based tool was developed to facilitate the use of the nomograms.
Based on multivariate analyses, 2 nomograms were built: 1 to predict delivery within 48 hours after transfer and 1 to predict delivery before 32 weeks. Discrimination and calibration of the predictive models were good when applied to the validation set (concordance index 0.73 and 0.72, respectively).
We developed and validated nomograms to predict the individual probability of preterm birth after transfer for threatened preterm delivery.
本研究旨在为三级保健中心因早产威胁而进行子宫内转移后的早产风险建立一个统计预测模型。
本研究为观察性研究，共纳入 906 例在 Paule-de-Viguier 和 Croix-Rousse 大学医院因早产威胁而进行转移的患者。1 组临床和超声数据用于构建预测早产的逻辑回归模型，并在独立组中进行验证。开发了一个基于互联网的工具来方便使用这些列线图。
基于多变量分析，建立了 2 个列线图：1 个用于预测转移后 48 小时内分娩，另 1 个用于预测 32 周前分娩。当应用于验证集时，预测模型的区分度和校准度均较好（一致性指数分别为 0.73 和 0.72）。
我们开发并验证了列线图，以预测因早产威胁而进行子宫内转移后的个体早产概率。
