Centre d'Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive, CNRS, UMR 5175, 1919 Route de Mende, 34293 Montpellier, Cedex 5, 34293 France.
Ecology. 2010 Nov;91(11):3365-75. doi: 10.1890/09-1525.1.
Researchers often rely on capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data to study animal dispersal in the wild. Yet their spatial coverage often does not encompass the entire dispersal range of the study individuals, sometimes producing misleading results. Information contained in population surveys and variation in population spatial structure can be used to overcome this issue. We build an integrated model in a multisite context in which CMR data are only collected at a subset of sites, but numbers of breeding pairs are counted at all sites. In a Black-headed Gull Chroicocephalus ridibundus population, the integrated-modeling approach induces an increase in precision for the demographic parameters of interest (variances, on average, were decreased by 20%) and provides a more precise extrapolation of results from the CMR data to the whole population. Patterns of condition-dependent dispersal are therefore made easier to detect, and we obtain evidence for colony-size dependence in recruitment, dispersal, and breeding success. These results suggest that first-time breeders disperse to small colonies in order to recruit earlier. The exchange of experienced breeders between colonies appears as a main determinant of the observed variation in colony sizes.
研究人员经常依赖捕获-标记-再捕获（CMR）数据来研究野生动物的扩散。然而，他们的空间覆盖范围通常不包括研究个体的整个扩散范围，有时会产生误导性的结果。种群调查中包含的信息和种群空间结构的变化可以用来克服这个问题。我们在多站点的背景下建立了一个综合模型，其中 CMR 数据仅在部分站点收集，但所有站点都计算繁殖对的数量。在黑头鸥（Chroicocephalus ridibundus）种群中，综合模型方法提高了感兴趣的人口参数（方差，平均降低了 20%）的精度，并更精确地将 CMR 数据的结果外推到整个种群。因此，条件依赖性扩散的模式更容易被检测到，我们也得到了关于繁殖成功率、扩散和繁殖成功的殖民地大小依赖性的证据。这些结果表明，初次繁殖者会向小的殖民地扩散，以便更早地招募。经验丰富的繁殖者在殖民地之间的交流似乎是观察到的殖民地大小变化的主要决定因素。
