Bijwaard Harmen, Dekkers Fieke, van Dillen Teun
Laboratory for Radiation Research, National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), PO Box 1, NL-3720 MA Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Radiat Prot Dosimetry. 2011 Feb;143(2-4):380-3. doi: 10.1093/rpd/ncq469. Epub 2010 Dec 17.
A mechanistic two-stage carcinogenesis model has been applied to model lung-cancer mortality in the largest uranium-miner cohort available. Models with and without smoking action both fit the data well. As smoking information is largely missing from the cohort data, a method has been devised to project this information from a case-control study onto the cohort. Model calculations using 256 projections show that the method works well. Preliminary results show that if an explicit smoking action is absent in the model, this is compensated by the values of the baseline parameters. This indicates that in earlier studies performed without smoking information, the results obtained for the radiation parameters are still valid. More importantly, the inclusion of smoking-related parameters shows that these mainly influence the later stages of lung-cancer development.
一种机械性两阶段致癌模型已应用于对现有最大规模铀矿矿工队列中的肺癌死亡率进行建模。包含和不包含吸烟作用的模型均能很好地拟合数据。由于队列数据中大量缺失吸烟信息，已设计出一种方法将来自病例对照研究的该信息投射到队列中。使用256种投射进行的模型计算表明该方法效果良好。初步结果显示，如果模型中不存在明确的吸烟作用，则由基线参数值进行补偿。这表明在早期未纳入吸烟信息进行的研究中，辐射参数的所得结果仍然有效。更重要的是，纳入与吸烟相关的参数表明，这些参数主要影响肺癌发展的后期阶段。
