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职业生涯长寿研究中马太效应的定量和实证论证。

Quantitative and empirical demonstration of the Matthew effect in a study of career longevity.

机构信息

Center for Polymer Studies and Department of Physics, Boston University, Boston, MA 02215, USA.

出版信息

Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2011 Jan 4;108(1):18-23. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1016733108. Epub 2010 Dec 20.

Abstract

The Matthew effect refers to the adage written some two-thousand years ago in the Gospel of St. Matthew: "For to all those who have, more will be given." Even two millennia later, this idiom is used by sociologists to qualitatively describe the dynamics of individual progress and the interplay between status and reward. Quantitative studies of professional careers are traditionally limited by the difficulty in measuring progress and the lack of data on individual careers. However, in some professions, there are well-defined metrics that quantify career longevity, success, and prowess, which together contribute to the overall success rating for an individual employee. Here we demonstrate testable evidence of the age-old Matthew "rich get richer" effect, wherein the longevity and past success of an individual lead to a cumulative advantage in further developing his or her career. We develop an exactly solvable stochastic career progress model that quantitatively incorporates the Matthew effect and validate our model predictions for several competitive professions. We test our model on the careers of 400,000 scientists using data from six high-impact journals and further confirm our findings by testing the model on the careers of more than 20,000 athletes in four sports leagues. Our model highlights the importance of early career development, showing that many careers are stunted by the relative disadvantage associated with inexperience.

摘要

马太效应是指两千多年前圣马太福音中所写的格言

“因为凡有的,还要加给他,叫他有余;没有的,连他所有的,也要夺过来。”即使在两千多年后,社会学家仍用这个习语来定性描述个人进步的动态和地位与回报之间的相互作用。传统上,对职业发展的定量研究受到衡量进步的难度以及个人职业数据缺乏的限制。然而,在某些职业中,有明确的指标可以量化职业寿命、成功和能力,这些指标共同构成了个人员工整体成功的评级。在这里,我们展示了可验证的古老马太“富者愈富”效应的证据,即个人的寿命和过去的成功导致在进一步发展职业生涯方面具有累积优势。我们开发了一个可精确求解的随机职业发展模型,该模型定量地包含了马太效应,并验证了我们对几个竞争职业的模型预测。我们使用来自六个高影响力期刊的 40 万名科学家的数据来测试我们的模型,并通过在四个体育联盟的 2 万多名运动员的职业中测试该模型进一步证实了我们的发现。我们的模型强调了早期职业发展的重要性,表明许多职业因经验不足而带来的相对劣势而受到阻碍。

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