Clinical International Nursing, School of Nursing, Columbia University, New York City, NY 10032, USA.
Prehosp Disaster Med. 2010 Nov-Dec;25(6):496-502. doi: 10.1017/s1049023x00008669.
The Darfur region of Sudan has been an intense focus of humanitarian concern since rebellions began there early in 2003. In 2004, the US Secretary of State declared that conflict in Darfur represented genocide. Since 2003, many sample surveys and various mortality estimates for Darfur have been made. Nonetheless, confusion and controversy surrounding mortality levels and trends have continued. For this project, results were reviewed from the highest quality field surveys on mortality in Darfur conducted between 2003 and 2008. Trend analysis demonstrated a dramatic decline in mortality over time in Darfur. By 2005, mortality levels had fallen below emergency levels and have continued to decline. Deaths directly due violence have declined as a proportion of all of the deaths in Darfur. Declining mortality in Darfur was not associated with other proximate improvements in well-being, such as improved nutrition. Without large-scale, humanitarian intervention, continuing high rates of mortality due to violence likely would have occurred. If mortality had continued at the high rate documented in 2004, by January 2009, there would have been 330,000 additional deaths. With the humanitarian assistance provided through the United Nations and non-governmental organizations, these people are alive today. A focus on excess deaths among noncombatants may draw attention away from other needs, such as establishing better security, improving service delivery to the displaced, and advocating for internally displaced persons to be reached today and to re-establish their lives and livelihoods tomorrow.
自 2003 年初达尔富尔地区爆发叛乱以来，该地区一直是人道主义关注的焦点。2004 年，美国国务卿宣布达尔富尔的冲突构成种族灭绝。自 2003 年以来，已经对达尔富尔进行了许多抽样调查和各种死亡率估计。然而，死亡率水平和趋势仍然存在混乱和争议。在这个项目中，审查了 2003 年至 2008 年期间在达尔富尔进行的关于死亡率的最高质量实地调查的结果。趋势分析表明，达尔富尔的死亡率随着时间的推移急剧下降。到 2005 年，死亡率水平已经低于紧急水平，并继续下降。达尔富尔因暴力直接导致的死亡人数在所有死亡人数中的比例下降。达尔富尔死亡率的下降与其他福利方面的近因改善无关，如营养改善。如果没有大规模的人道主义干预，达尔富尔因暴力而导致的高死亡率可能会持续下去。如果死亡率继续保持 2004 年记录的高速度，到 2009 年 1 月，将有 33 万人额外死亡。由于联合国和非政府组织提供的人道主义援助，这些人今天还活着。关注非战斗人员的超额死亡人数可能会使人们忽视其他需求，如建立更好的安全保障、改善对流离失所者的服务提供，以及倡导今天为境内流离失所者提供援助，使他们能够重建生活和生计。
