Ross P D, Wasnich R D, Davis J W
Hawaii Osteoporosis Center, Honolulu 96814.
Bone. 1990;11(5):327-31. doi: 10.1016/8756-3282(90)90088-g.
Fracture prediction models have been developed that can estimate an individual's cumulative or lifetime fracture risk on the basis of bone mineral measurements and other factors. Examples illustrate how estimates of cumulative fracture risk might be influenced by initial age and level of bone mass, as well as by anticipated bone loss rate. New data regarding bone loss rates, fracture costs, and fracture risk factors should be incorporated to improve the accuracy of existing models. Such models could then be used for cost-benefit analysis to explore optimal treatment strategies.
已经开发出骨折预测模型，这些模型可以根据骨矿物质测量结果和其他因素来估计个体的累积或终生骨折风险。实例说明了累积骨折风险的估计可能如何受到初始年龄、骨量水平以及预期骨丢失率的影响。关于骨丢失率、骨折成本和骨折风险因素的新数据应被纳入，以提高现有模型的准确性。然后，这样的模型可用于成本效益分析，以探索最佳治疗策略。
