Rödder Dennis, Kielgast Jos, Lötters Stefan
Zoologisches Forschungsmuseum Alexander Koenig, Adenauerallee 160, 53113 Bonn, Germany.
Dis Aquat Organ. 2010 Nov;92(2-3):201-7. doi: 10.3354/dao02197.
Anthropogenic climate change poses a major threat to global biodiversity with a potential to alter biological interactions at all spatial scales. Amphibians are the most threatened vertebrates and have been subject to increasing conservation attention over the past decade. A particular concern is the pandemic emergence of the parasitic chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, which has been identified as the cause of extremely rapid large-scale declines and species extinctions. Experimental and observational studies have demonstrated that the host-pathogen system is strongly influenced by climatic parameters and thereby potentially affected by climate change. Herein we project a species distribution model of the pathogen onto future climatic scenarios generated by the IPCC to examine their potential implications on the pandemic. Results suggest that predicted anthropogenic climate change may reduce the geographic range of B. dendrobatidis and its potential influence on amphibian biodiversity.
人为气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大威胁，有可能在所有空间尺度上改变生物相互作用。两栖动物是受威胁最严重的脊椎动物，在过去十年中受到越来越多的保护关注。一个特别令人担忧的问题是寄生壶菌蛙壶菌的大流行，它已被确定为导致两栖动物极快速大规模减少和物种灭绝的原因。实验和观察研究表明，宿主 - 病原体系统受到气候参数的强烈影响，因此可能受到气候变化的影响。在此，我们将病原体的物种分布模型投射到政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）生成的未来气候情景中，以研究其对这种大流行的潜在影响。结果表明，预计的人为气候变化可能会缩小蛙壶菌的地理分布范围及其对两栖动物生物多样性的潜在影响。
