Heilongjiang Key Laboratory for Laboratory Animals and Comparative Medicine, College of Veterinary Medicine, Northeast Agricultural University, 600 Changjiang Road, Harbin, 150030, People's Republic of China.
Ecohealth. 2021 Mar;18(1):3-12. doi: 10.1007/s10393-021-01519-x. Epub 2021 Jul 2.
Chytridiomycosis, a leading cause for the global decline in the number of amphibians, is caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. In this study, global distribution data of B. dendrobatidis were collected from January 2009 to May 2019. Space-time scan statistics and the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model were used to analyze the epidemic trends and aggregation of the pathogen, and predict B. dendrobatidis distribution through its relationships with climate factors, wind speed, and solar radiation. The results of space-time scan statistics show seven clusters of data for the distribution of B. dendrobatidis. The time was mainly concentrated in 2009, 2013, 2015, and 2016, and the regions were primarily concentrated in southeastern Canada, southwestern France, Nigeria, Cameroon, eastern Brazil, southeastern Brazil, central Madagascar, and central and eastern Australia. MaxEnt showed that annual precipitation had the largest contribution percentage in the model, and annual mean temperature highly influenced the distribution of B. dendrobatidis. The global high-risk areas of B. dendrobatidis distribution were mainly observed in western Canada, southern Brazil, Chile, the United Kingdom, Japan, the Republic of Korea, eastern South Africa, eastern Madagascar, southeastern Australia, and southern China.
蛙壶菌病是导致全球两栖动物数量减少的主要原因，由真菌病原体蛙壶菌引起。本研究于 2009 年 1 月至 2019 年 5 月期间收集了全球范围内的蛙壶菌分布数据。采用时空扫描统计和最大熵（MaxEnt）模型分析了病原体的流行趋势和聚集性，并通过与气候因素、风速和太阳辐射的关系来预测蛙壶菌的分布。时空扫描统计结果显示，蛙壶菌的分布存在七个聚类数据。时间主要集中在 2009 年、2013 年、2015 年和 2016 年，地区主要集中在加拿大东南部、法国西南部、尼日利亚、喀麦隆、巴西东部、巴西东南部、马达加斯加中部和澳大利亚中东部。MaxEnt 模型显示，年降水量对模型的贡献百分比最大，年平均温度对蛙壶菌的分布有很大影响。全球范围内蛙壶菌高风险分布地区主要分布在加拿大西部、巴西南部、智利、英国、日本、韩国、南非东部、马达加斯加东部、澳大利亚东南部和中国南部。
