The aims of this study were to examine the incidence of temporomandibular disorders (TMDs) over a 3-year period and to evaluate the risk of self-reported TMDs among university students in Japan. The study population comprised 2374 university students examined at the start of their undergraduate course and 492 students re-examined after 3 years using questionnaires on symptoms of TMD and experiences of jaw injury, stress, orthodontic treatment and parafunctional habits. Cumulative incidence (%) and relative risks were calculated overall. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated to determine the degree of risks of these variables for symptoms of TMDs using logistic regression. Results of logistic regression analysis showed that male subjects with experience of jaw injury had a 3·54 (CI=1·45-8·68, P<0·01)-fold higher risk of temporomandibular joint (TMJ) pain than that for those who did not. Female subjects who reported experiencing stress and bruxism had 10·56 (CI=1·28-87·54, P<0·05)- and 5·00 (CI=1·21-20·71, P<0·05)-fold higher risks of TMJ sound, respectively, than the risk for female subjects who had not experienced stress or bruxism. The results indicated that experiences of jaw injury, stress and bruxism were significantly associated with increased risks of development of TMJ disorders in a 3-year cohort.