International Population and Urban Research and Departments of Demography and Sociology, University of California, 94720, Berkeley, California.
Demography. 1969 Aug;6(3):223-42. doi: 10.2307/2060393.
Using 69 new life tables recently made by Arriaga for Latin American countries by stable-population methods, the authors examine the mortality trends for more countries and more periods of history than have previously been available for analysis. For the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, the new tables yield a substantially lower life-expectancy than that shown by previously published life tables; for recent decades the difference is smaller, though in the same direction. As a consequence, the new tables show a speed of mortality decline in Latin America greater than the speed hitherto assumed. When the trend is analyzed in terms of economic development, it appears that the decline was extremely slow in the more backward Latin American countries until around 1930, whereas in the more advanced countries of the region, a more rapid decline had set in before that. After 1930, however, in both groups of countries the pace of decline was faster than ever, and it was virtually the same for both groups, suggesting that after that date public health measures were exerting a strong influence independently of local economic development. This result is confirmed by comparison with the past history of now developed countries; the mortality decline in Latin America after 1930 was much faster than it was historically at the same level in the industrial countries. As compared with other underdeveloped countries today, the unprecedented decline of mortality in Latin America is typical. In most underdeveloped countries, whether in Latin America or elsewhere, mortality change seems increasingly independent of economic improvement and more dependent on the importation of preventive medicine and public health from the industrial countries.
利用阿利亚加最近为拉丁美洲国家使用稳定人口方法编制的 69 份新生命表，作者检查了更多国家和更多历史时期的死亡率趋势，比以前可用于分析的情况更多。对于 19 世纪后期和 20 世纪早期，新的生命表显示的预期寿命明显低于以前发表的生命表；对于最近几十年，差异虽小，但方向相同。因此，新的生命表显示出拉丁美洲的死亡率下降速度比迄今为止假设的速度更快。当从经济发展的角度分析这一趋势时，似乎在较落后的拉丁美洲国家，死亡率下降速度极其缓慢，直到 1930 年左右，而在该地区较先进的国家，这种下降速度在这之前就已经开始加快。然而，1930 年之后，两组国家的死亡率下降速度都比以往任何时候都要快，而且速度几乎相同，这表明自那时以来，公共卫生措施的影响非常强烈，独立于当地的经济发展。这一结果与现在发达国家的历史情况进行比较得到了证实；拉丁美洲 1930 年后的死亡率下降速度比工业化国家在同一历史水平上的下降速度要快得多。与今天其他欠发达国家相比，拉丁美洲死亡率前所未有的下降是典型的。在大多数欠发达国家，无论是在拉丁美洲还是其他地方，死亡率的变化似乎越来越独立于经济改善，而更多地依赖于从工业化国家进口预防医学和公共卫生。
