Department of Sociology, University of North Carolina, 27514, Chapel Hill, North Carolina.
Demography. 1969 Aug;6(3):287-99. doi: 10.2307/2060398.
In this paper a method to investigate the dependence of age structure and growth rate on a given sequence of fertility and mortality schedules under the conditions of unchanging mortality and absence of migration is discussed. The method consists in projecting an arbitrary population classified by age to the ends of successive periods assuming that a given age pattern of mortality will remain without change and that a given sequence of fertility schedules will repeatedly operate on the population in a cyclical fashion. It is shown that after a sufficiently large number of repetitions of the cycle, the shifts in age structure between the ends of successive periods and the changes in the growth of the different age groups from one period to the next show a cyclical pattern. Formulas are derived expressing the above changes in terms of a sequence of k growth multipliers, k being the number of schedules in the fertility sequence, and the survival rates in the mortality schedule. A numerical illustration of the theory is given using fertility data from Finland.
本文讨论了在死亡率不变且没有迁移的情况下，根据给定的生育和死亡率序列，研究年龄结构和增长率的依赖性的方法。该方法包括将按年龄分类的任意人群投射到连续时期的末尾，假设给定的死亡率年龄模式保持不变，并且给定的生育计划序列将周期性地在人群中反复运行。结果表明，在周期重复足够多次后，连续时期末尾的年龄结构变化以及不同年龄组在下一个时期的增长率变化呈现出周期性模式。导出了用 k 个增长乘数表示上述变化的公式，k 是生育序列中计划的数量，以及死亡率计划中的生存率。使用芬兰的生育数据对该理论进行了数值说明。
