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丹那利国家公园内金雕巢附近徒步旅行最优控制的自适应管理框架。

An adaptive-management framework for optimal control of hiking near golden eagle nests in Denali National Park.

机构信息

Florida Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611-0485, USA.

出版信息

Conserv Biol. 2011 Apr;25(2):316-23. doi: 10.1111/j.1523-1739.2010.01644.x. Epub 2011 Feb 22.

Abstract

Unintended effects of recreational activities in protected areas are of growing concern. We used an adaptive-management framework to develop guidelines for optimally managing hiking activities to maintain desired levels of territory occupancy and reproductive success of Golden Eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) in Denali National Park (Alaska, U.S.A.). The management decision was to restrict human access (hikers) to particular nesting territories to reduce disturbance. The management objective was to minimize restrictions on hikers while maintaining reproductive performance of eagles above some specified level. We based our decision analysis on predictive models of site occupancy of eagles developed using a combination of expert opinion and data collected from 93 eagle territories over 20 years. The best predictive model showed that restricting human access to eagle territories had little effect on occupancy dynamics. However, when considering important sources of uncertainty in the models, including environmental stochasticity, imperfect detection of hares on which eagles prey, and model uncertainty, restricting access of territories to hikers improved eagle reproduction substantially. An adaptive management framework such as ours may help reduce uncertainty of the effects of hiking activities on Golden Eagles.

摘要

保护区内娱乐活动的意外影响越来越受到关注。我们使用适应性管理框架,制定了优化管理徒步活动的指南,以维持金雕(Aquila chrysaetos)在德纳利国家公园(美国阿拉斯加)的领地占有率和繁殖成功率。管理决策是限制人类(徒步旅行者)进入特定筑巢领地,以减少干扰。管理目标是在保持鹰的繁殖性能高于特定水平的同时,尽量减少对徒步旅行者的限制。我们的决策分析基于使用专家意见和 20 年来从 93 个鹰领地收集的数据相结合开发的鹰栖息地占有率预测模型。最佳预测模型表明,限制人类进入鹰领地对栖息地动态几乎没有影响。然而,当考虑模型中的重要不确定性来源,包括环境随机性、对鹰捕食的野兔的不完全检测,以及模型不确定性时,限制徒步旅行者进入领地会显著改善鹰的繁殖。像我们这样的适应性管理框架可能有助于降低徒步活动对金雕影响的不确定性。

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