Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright Laboratory, Ash Road, Pirbright, Surrey GU24 0NF, UK.
Epidemics. 2010 Sep;2(3):148-154. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2010.05.001. Epub 2010 Jun 4.
Following the arrival of bluetongue virus serotype 8 (BTV-8) in southeast England in September 2007, the Scottish Government commissioned research to assess the economic consequences of a BTV-8 incursion to Scotland. Here we present the first component of the assessment, which entailed identifying feasible incursion scenarios for the virus. Our analyses focused on three routes of introduction: wind-borne dispersal of infected vectors, import of infected animals and northwards spread of BTV from affected areas in GB. These analyses were further refined by considering the spatial and temporal variation in the probability of onward transmission from an initial incursion.
2007 年 9 月，蓝舌病病毒 8 型（BTV-8）传入英格兰东南部后，苏格兰政府委托开展研究，评估该病毒传入苏格兰的经济后果。本研究呈现评估的第一部分，涉及确定病毒可能传入的情景。我们的分析集中于三种传入途径：感染媒介的风载传播、感染动物的输入以及 BTV 从英国受感染地区向北传播。通过考虑初始传入后继续传播的可能性在时空上的变化，进一步细化了这些分析。
