Heritability of heat tolerance in a small livebearing fish, Heterandria formosa.

Climate change is expected to result in an increased occurrence of heat stress. The long-term population-level impact of this stress would be lessened in populations able to genetically adapt to higher temperatures. Adaptation requires the presence of genetically-based variation. At-risk populations may undergo strong declines in population size that lower the amount of genetic variation. The objectives of this study were to quantify the heritability of heat tolerance in populations of the least killifish, Heterandria formosa, and to determine if heritabilities were reduced following a population bottleneck. Heritabilities of heat tolerance were determined for two lines of each of two source populations; two bottlenecked lines (established with one pair of fish) and two regular lines. Heat tolerance was quantified as temperature-at-death (TAD), when fish acclimated at 28 °C were subjected to an increase in water temperature of 2 °C/day. Mid-parent/mean offspring regressions and full-sib analyses were used to estimate the heritability of TAD. Heritability estimates from parent/offspring regressions ranged from 0.185 to 0.462, while those from sib analyses ranged from 0 to 0.324, with an overall estimate of 0.203 (0.230 for the regular lines, 0.168 for bottlenecked ones). Fish from the bottlenecked line from one source population (but not the other) had a lower heritability than did those from the regular line. These results show that the populations tested had some potential for adaptation to elevated water temperatures, and that this potential may be reduced following a population bottleneck. This should not be construed as evidence that natural populations will not suffer negative consequences from global warming; this study only showed that these specific populations have some potential to adapt under a very specific set of conditions.