Department of Plant Ecology, University of Bayreuth, Germany.
Philos Trans R Soc Lond B Biol Sci. 2010 Jul 12;365(1549):2019-24. doi: 10.1098/rstb.2010.0021.
There is ample evidence for ecological responses to recent climate change. Most studies to date have concentrated on the effects of climate change on individuals and species, with particular emphasis on the effects on phenology and physiology of organisms as well as changes in the distribution and range shifts of species. However, responses by individual species to climate change are not isolated; they are connected through interactions with others at the same or adjacent trophic levels. Also from this more complex perspective, recent case studies have emphasized evidence on the effects of climate change on biotic interactions and ecosystem services. This review highlights the 'knowns' but also 'unknowns' resulting from recent climate impact studies and reveals limitations of (linear) extrapolations from recent climate-induced responses of species to expected trends and magnitudes of future climate change. Hence, there is need not only to continue to focus on the impacts of climate change on the actors in ecological networks but also and more intensively to focus on the linkages between them, and to acknowledge that biotic interactions and feedback processes lead to highly complex, nonlinear and sometimes abrupt responses.
有充分的证据表明生态系统对近期气候变化的响应。迄今为止，大多数研究都集中在气候变化对个体和物种的影响上，特别强调了对生物物候和生理学的影响，以及物种分布和范围转移的变化。然而，单个物种对气候变化的响应并非孤立的；它们通过与同一或相邻营养级别的其他物种相互作用而联系在一起。同样，从这个更复杂的角度来看，最近的案例研究强调了气候变化对生物相互作用和生态系统服务的影响的证据。本综述突出了最近气候影响研究产生的“已知”和“未知”，并揭示了将物种对近期气候引起的响应的线性外推应用于预期的未来气候变化趋势和幅度的局限性。因此，不仅需要继续关注气候变化对生态网络中参与者的影响，而且还需要更加强调它们之间的联系，并认识到生物相互作用和反馈过程会导致高度复杂、非线性且有时是突然的响应。
