Kaboodvandpour Shahram, Leung Luke K-P
Department of Environment Sciences, Kurdistan University, Sanandaj, Kurdistan, Iran.
Integr Zool. 2010 Mar;5(1):2-14. doi: 10.1111/j.1749-4877.2010.00188.x.
A large-scale outbreak of the house mouse populations occurs in grain growing in Australia on average once every four years. High densities of mice cause major yield losses to cereal crops, and low to moderate densities of mice also cause some losses. Several predictive models based on rainfall patterns have been developed to forecast mouse density. These models carry some uncertainty and the economic value of basing management actions on these models is not clear. Baiting is the most commonly used method and zinc phosphide and other rodenticide bait are effective in reducing up to 90% of mouse populations. Ecologically-based best farming practice for controlling mice has recently been developed on the basis of long-term field studies of mouse populations. No effective biological control method has been developed for mice. However, grain growers still cannot make economically rational decisions to implement control because they do not know the pest threshold density (D(T)) above which the economic benefits of control exceed the economic costs of control. Applied predator-prey theory suggests that understanding the relationship between mouse density and damage is the basis for determining D(T). Understanding this relationship is the first research priority for managing mouse damage. The other research priority is to develop a reliable method to estimate unbiased mouse density.
澳大利亚谷物种植区家鼠种群平均每四年会大规模爆发一次。高密度的老鼠会给谷类作物造成重大产量损失，低密度至中等密度的老鼠也会造成一些损失。已经开发了几种基于降雨模式的预测模型来预测老鼠密度。这些模型存在一定不确定性，基于这些模型采取管理行动的经济价值尚不清楚。投饵是最常用的方法，磷化锌和其他灭鼠剂诱饵能有效减少高达90%的老鼠数量。基于对老鼠种群的长期田间研究，最近开发了基于生态的最佳控鼠耕作方法。尚未开发出有效的老鼠生物防治方法。然而，谷物种植者仍然无法做出经济合理的决策来实施防治，因为他们不知道害虫阈值密度（D(T)），超过该阈值，防治的经济效益将超过防治的经济成本。应用捕食者-猎物理论表明，了解老鼠密度与损害之间的关系是确定D(T)的基础。了解这种关系是管理老鼠损害的首要研究重点。另一个研究重点是开发一种可靠的方法来估计无偏差的老鼠密度。
