Department of Computing Science and Mathematics, University of Stirling, Stirling FK94LA, Scotland, UK.
J Theor Biol. 2011 Jun 7;278(1):74-86. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.03.002. Epub 2011 Mar 17.
Much progress has been made in understanding the effect of periodic forcing on epidemiological and ecological systems when that forcing acts on just one part of the system. Much less is known about situations in which several parts of the system are affected. In this case the interaction between the impacts of the different forcing components can lead to reinforcement of system responses or to their interference. This interference phenomenon is significant if some forcing components are anthropogenic for then management might be able to exercise sufficient control to bring about suppression of undesirable aspects of the forcing, for example resonant amplification and the problems this can cause. We set out the algebraic theory when forcing is weak and illustrate by example what can happen when forcing is strong enough to create subharmonics and chaotic states. Phase is the key control variable that can bring about interference, advantageously shift nonlinear response curves and create periodic states out of chaos. The phenomenon in which high period fluctuations appear to be generated by low period forcing is examined and different mechanisms compared in a two-strain epidemiological model. The effect of noise as a source of high period fluctuations is also considered.
在理解周期性强迫对流行病学和生态学系统的影响方面已经取得了很大进展,当强迫仅作用于系统的一部分时。但对于系统的几个部分受到影响的情况知之甚少。在这种情况下,不同强迫分量的影响之间的相互作用可能导致系统响应的增强或干扰。如果某些强迫分量是人为的,那么这种干扰现象就很重要,因为这样管理就有可能进行充分的控制,从而抑制强迫的不良方面,例如共振放大及其可能导致的问题。当强迫很弱时,我们给出了代数理论,并通过例子说明了当强迫足够强时会发生什么,例如产生亚谐波和混沌状态。相位是关键的控制变量,可以产生干扰,有利地改变非线性响应曲线,并从混沌中产生周期性状态。研究了高周期波动似乎由低周期强迫产生的现象,并在两菌株流行病学模型中比较了不同的机制。还考虑了噪声作为高周期波动源的影响。