Department of Mathematics, Ajou University, San 5, Woncheon-dong, Yeongtong-gu, Suwon, Kyungki-do 443-749, Republic of Korea.
J Theor Biol. 2011 Jun 21;279(1):120-31. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.03.009. Epub 2011 Mar 30.
We have developed a dynamic model for tuberculosis (TB) transmission in South Korea using a SEIR model with the time-dependent parameters. South Korea ranked the highest TB incidence among members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 2005 yr. The observed data from the Korea Center for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) shows a certain rise of active-TB incidence individuals after 2001 yr. Because of this sudden jump, we have considered two different periods for best fitting the model: prior to 2001 yr and posterior to 2001 yr. The least-squares fitting has been used for estimating model parameters to the observed data of active-TB incidence. Our model agrees well with the observed data. In this work, we also propose optimal treatment strategies of TB model in South Korea for the future. We have considered three control mechanisms representing distancing, case finding and case holding efforts. Optimal control programs have been proposed in various scenarios, in order to minimize the number of exposed and infectious individuals and the cost of implementing the control treatment.
我们使用具有时变参数的 SEIR 模型开发了韩国结核病（TB）传播的动态模型。2005 年，韩国在经济合作与发展组织（OECD）成员国中结核病发病率最高。韩国疾病控制与预防中心（KCDC）的观测数据显示，2001 年后活动性结核病发病率个体呈一定上升趋势。由于这种突然的跳跃，我们考虑了两个不同的时期来最好地拟合模型：2001 年之前和 2001 年之后。最小二乘法拟合已用于将模型参数估计到活动性结核病发病率的观测数据。我们的模型与观测数据吻合良好。在这项工作中，我们还为韩国的结核病模型提出了未来的最佳治疗策略。我们考虑了三种代表距离、病例发现和病例保持努力的控制机制。为了最大限度地减少暴露和感染个体的数量以及实施控制治疗的成本，我们在各种情况下提出了最佳控制方案。
