Centre for Infectious Diseases Control, National Institute of Public Health and the Environment, Bilthoven, The Netherlands.
Sex Transm Infect. 2011 Jun;87(4):289-91. doi: 10.1136/sti.2010.048512. Epub 2011 Mar 25.
Migrants originating from countries with a high HIV prevalence account for a large number of heterosexually acquired HIV infections in western European countries. These migrants may be infected before migrating and they may engage in unsafe sexual practices both in the country of residence and in their country of origin. This report investigates how patterns of migration may affect the heterosexual HIV epidemic in The Netherlands.
A mathematical model was used that describes the transmission of HIV in heterosexual partnerships between African migrants, Caribbean migrants and the local Dutch population. Infection of migrants before migrating to The Netherlands and during trips to their country of origin was also accounted for.
The incidence of HIV infection among adult heterosexuals in 2010 was 1.50 new infections per 100,000 individuals per year. If the number of migrants entering the country increases, then the incidence of HIV will increase, although this change among Dutch individuals will be negligible. Moreover, if HIV prevalence among those migrating to The Netherlands (at the time of entry to the country) is higher, then incidence in the respective ethnic group will increase; among other ethnic groups, the increase will be very small.
Heterosexual transmission of HIV in The Netherlands occurs mostly within migrant communities. Limiting migration and introducing travel restrictions would probably have no effect on HIV incidence in countries with low HIV prevalence among heterosexuals. Policy making should focus on targeted interventions, to reduce the burden of disease in migrant communities in Europe.
来自艾滋病高发国家的移民在西欧国家的异性间获得性感染艾滋病病毒（HIV）病例中占很大比例。这些移民可能在移居之前就已感染，并且他们可能在居住国和原籍国均从事不安全的性行为。本报告旨在研究移民模式如何影响荷兰的异性间 HIV 流行情况。
使用了一个数学模型来描述非洲移民、加勒比移民和当地荷兰人群体之间异性性伙伴关系中 HIV 的传播。该模型还考虑了移民在移居荷兰之前以及在原籍国旅行期间的感染情况。
2010 年，成年异性恋者 HIV 感染的发病率为每 10 万人每年 1.50 例新感染。如果进入该国的移民人数增加，那么 HIV 的发病率将会增加，尽管荷兰人当中的这种变化可以忽略不计。此外，如果移民到荷兰的人数（在进入该国时）的 HIV 流行率较高，那么相应族群的发病率将会增加；在其他族群中，增加幅度将会非常小。
荷兰的异性间 HIV 传播主要发生在移民社区内。限制移民和实施旅行限制可能对 HIV 发病率低的国家没有影响。政策制定应侧重于采取有针对性的干预措施，以减轻欧洲移民社区的疾病负担。
