Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge CB3 9DE, UK.
Philos Trans A Math Phys Eng Sci. 2011 May 13;369(1942):1748-61. doi: 10.1098/rsta.2010.0352.
Concerns over future oil scarcity might not be so worrying but for the high carbon content of substitutes, and the limited capacity of the atmosphere to absorb additional CO(2) from burning fuel. The paper argues that the tools of economics are helpful in understanding some of the key issues in pricing fossil fuels, the extent to which pricing can be left to markets, the need for, and design of, international agreements on corrective carbon pricing, and the potential Prisoners' Dilemma in reaching such agreements, partly mitigated in the case of oil by current taxes and the probable incidence of carbon taxes on the oil price. The 'Green Paradox', in which carbon pricing exacerbates climate change, is theoretically possible, but empirically unlikely.
对未来石油短缺的担忧可能并不那么令人担忧,除非替代品的碳含量很高,而且大气吸收燃料燃烧产生的额外二氧化碳的能力有限。本文认为,经济学工具有助于理解化石燃料定价的一些关键问题,包括定价在多大程度上可以留给市场,以及对纠正碳定价的国际协议的必要性和设计,以及在达成此类协议时可能出现的囚徒困境,在石油方面,部分缓解因素是当前的税收和可能对石油价格征收碳税。碳定价加剧气候变化的“绿色悖论”在理论上是可能的,但在经验上不太可能。