Finkelstein Stan N, Hedberg Kallie J, Hopkins Julia A, Hashmi Sahar, Larson Richard C
Engineering Systems Division, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA.
Am J Disaster Med. 2011 Jan-Feb;6(1):23-30.
After initial flu cases are reported, months elapse before vaccine becomes available. The authors report the experience of US states during the fall of 2009 on H1N1 vaccine availability in relation to the occurrence of disease.
The authors used data from the Centers for Disease Control and prevention and state health departments to approximate second wave H1N1 epidemic curves. The authors compared these curves to two sources of vaccine distribution data-shipment and administration.
Ten states received their first shipments of vaccine after the epidemic peaked, four states during the week of the peak, and 10 states only 1 week prior to the peak. In nearly half of all states, the epidemic had already begun to decline before any individuals could have been protected.
A sensible approach would be to highlight the importance of diligent hygienic behavior and to reduce the rate of human-to-human contacts before vaccine is available.
在报告首例流感病例后，数月时间过去疫苗才会可用。作者报告了美国各州在2009年秋季关于甲型H1N1流感疫苗供应与疾病发生情况的经验。
作者使用了疾病控制与预防中心以及各州卫生部门的数据来估算甲型H1N1流感第二波疫情曲线。作者将这些曲线与疫苗分发数据的两个来源——运输和接种——进行了比较。
10个州在疫情达到峰值后收到了首批疫苗，4个州在峰值那周收到，10个州仅在峰值前1周收到。在几乎一半的州中，在任何人能够得到保护之前疫情就已经开始下降。
一种明智的方法是在疫苗可用之前强调勤洗手等卫生行为的重要性，并减少人际接触率。
