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2
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Ann Thorac Surg. 2009 Mar;87(3):720-5. doi: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2008.12.016.
3
Adverse events during reoperative cardiac surgery: frequency, characterization, and rescue.再次心脏手术期间的不良事件：发生率、特征及救治
J Thorac Cardiovasc Surg. 2008 Feb;135(2):316-23, 323.e1-6. doi: 10.1016/j.jtcvs.2007.08.060.
4
Predictors of mortality after aortic valve replacement.主动脉瓣置换术后死亡率的预测因素。
Eur J Cardiothorac Surg. 2007 Sep;32(3):469-74. doi: 10.1016/j.ejcts.2007.06.012. Epub 2007 Jul 19.
5
Cardiac procedures in patients with a body mass index exceeding 45: outcomes and long-term results.体重指数超过45的患者的心脏手术：结果与长期随访
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6
Cardiac surgery in patients with body mass index of 50 or greater.体重指数为50或更高的患者的心脏手术。
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7
Body mass index: a risk factor for 30-day or six-month mortality in patients undergoing aortic valve replacement?体重指数：主动脉瓣置换术患者30天或6个月死亡率的危险因素？
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8
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9
Current determinants of operative mortality in 1400 patients requiring aortic valve replacement.1400例需要进行主动脉瓣置换术患者手术死亡率的当前决定因素。
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10
Impact of body mass index and albumin on morbidity and mortality after cardiac surgery.体重指数和白蛋白对心脏手术后发病率和死亡率的影响。
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AVR 评分预测主动脉瓣置换术 30 天死亡率。

Predicting 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement by the AVR score.

机构信息

Department of Cardiology, St. Antonius Hospital, P.O. Box 2500, 3435 CM, Nieuwegein, the Netherlands,

出版信息

Neth Heart J. 2011 Jun;19(6):273-8. doi: 10.1007/s12471-011-0103-7.

DOI:10.1007/s12471-011-0103-7
PMID:21494889
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3111570/
Abstract

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study is to develop a simple risk score to predict 30-day mortality of aortic valve replacement (AVR).

METHODS

In a development set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR between 1990 and 1993, four independent predictors for 30-day mortality were identified: body mass index (BMI) ≥30, BMI <20, previous coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and recent myocardial infarction. Based on these predictors, a 30-day mortality risk score-the AVR score-was developed. The AVR score was validated on a validation set of 673 consecutive patients who underwent AVR almost two decennia later in the same hospital.

RESULTS

Thirty-day mortality in the development set was ≤2% in the absence of any predictor (class I, low risk), 2-5% in the solitary presence of BMI ≥30 (class II, mild risk), 5-15% in the solitary presence of previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class III, moderate risk), and >15% in the solitary presence of BMI <20, or any combination of BMI ≥30, previous CABG or recent myocardial infarction (class IV, high risk). The AVR score correctly predicted 30-day mortality in the validation set: observed 30-day mortality in the validation set was 2.3% in 487 class I patients, 4.4% in 137 class II patients, 13.3% in 30 class III patients and 15.8% in 19 class IV patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The AVR score is a simple risk score validated to predict 30-day mortality of AVR.

摘要

目的

本研究旨在开发一种简单的风险评分，以预测主动脉瓣置换术（AVR）的 30 天死亡率。

方法

在 1990 年至 1993 年间连续接受 AVR 的 673 例患者的发展数据集，确定了四个独立的 30 天死亡率预测因子：体重指数（BMI）≥30、BMI<20、既往冠状动脉旁路移植术（CABG）和近期心肌梗死。基于这些预测因素，开发了 30 天死亡率风险评分-AVR 评分。该 AVR 评分在同一医院近二十年后对 673 例连续接受 AVR 的验证数据集进行了验证。

结果

在无任何预测因子的情况下，发展数据集的 30 天死亡率为≤2%（I 级，低风险），单独存在 BMI≥30 时为 2-5%（II 级，轻度风险），单独存在既往 CABG 或近期心肌梗死时为 5-15%（III 级，中度风险），且 BMI<20 时或任何 BMI≥30、既往 CABG 或近期心肌梗死的组合存在时>15%（IV 级，高风险）。AVR 评分正确预测了验证数据集的 30 天死亡率：验证数据集的观察到的 30 天死亡率在 487 例 I 级患者中为 2.3%，在 137 例 II 级患者中为 4.4%，在 30 例 III 级患者中为 13.3%，在 19 例 IV 级患者中为 15.8%。

结论

AVR 评分是一种简单的风险评分，经验证可预测 AVR 的 30 天死亡率。