Smith G, Grenfell B T
Department of Clinical Studies, New Bolton Center, University of Pennsylvania School of Veterinary Medicine 19348.
Am J Vet Res. 1990 Jan;51(1):148-55.
A deterministic mathematical model of the population biology of pseudorabies in swine was used to clarify some of the basic features of the host-virus relationship and to inquire into the circumstances that promote or impede virus persistence in a single herd. When the basic reproductive rate of the infection (ie, the number of secondary infections resulting from the introduction of a single infective animal into a wholly susceptible herd) is greater than unity, the model suggests that the number of infective individuals in the herd will undergo highly damped oscillations to a final equilibrium level. The most important determinants of virus persistence are herd size and the density at which sows are maintained. There is a threshold density of susceptible individuals below which the virus will eventually be eliminated from the herd, even when specific control measures are lacking. Test and removal strategies hasten virus elimination when herd density is already below threshold, but are otherwise likely to succeed only when the removal of latent infections reduces the basic reproductive rate of the infection below unity. Vaccination strategies may also result in virus elimination, but only in relatively small herds.
一个关于猪伪狂犬病种群生物学的确定性数学模型被用于阐明宿主-病毒关系的一些基本特征，并探究促进或阻碍病毒在单个猪群中持续存在的情况。当感染的基本繁殖率（即，将一只感染动物引入完全易感猪群所导致的二次感染数量）大于1时，该模型表明猪群中感染个体的数量将经历高度衰减的振荡，直至达到最终平衡水平。病毒持续存在的最重要决定因素是猪群规模和母猪饲养密度。存在一个易感个体的阈值密度，低于该密度时，即使缺乏特定的控制措施，病毒最终也会从猪群中消除。当猪群密度已经低于阈值时，检测和清除策略会加速病毒消除，但否则只有在清除潜伏感染将感染的基本繁殖率降低到1以下时才可能成功。疫苗接种策略也可能导致病毒消除，但仅在相对较小的猪群中。
