Invasive plant alters ability to predict disease vector distribution.

Risk models for vector-borne diseases rely on accurate quantification of the relationship between vector abundance and habitat, but this relationship can be obscured if habitats are modified by invasive species in ways that alter vector behavior but are undetectable in remotely sensed data. At a forest in eastern Missouri we assessed whether the presence of an invasive shrub, Amur honeysuckle, Lonicera maackii, affects oviposition by treehole mosquitoes, Aedes triseriatus, a primary vector of La Crosse virus in the United States. Oviposition significantly decreased with increasing density of L. maackii. Moreover, our results indicate that L. maackii may hinder the efficacy of models that use remotely sensed data to predict vector abundance: there was a strong relationship between landscape composition around plots and oviposition, but only in plots not invaded by L. maackii. Overlooking potentially important but cryptic effects of invasive plants on habitat selection by vectors may undermine accurate forecasting of disease risk.