Department of Orthopaedics, University Medical Center Groningen, University of Groningen, Hanzeplein 1, 9713 GZ, Groningen, The Netherlands.
Eur Spine J. 2012 Jan;21(1):71-6. doi: 10.1007/s00586-011-1845-z. Epub 2011 May 19.
Predicting the peak growth velocity in an individual patient with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis is essential or determining the prognosis of the disorder and timing of the (surgical) treatment. Until the present time, no accurate method has been found to predict the timing and magnitude of the pubertal growth spurt in the individual child. A mathematical model was developed in which the partial individual growth velocity curve was linked to the generic growth velocity curve. The generic curve was shifted and stretched or shrunk, both along the age axis and the height velocity axis. The individual age and magnitude of the PGV were obtained from the new predicted complete growth velocity curve. Predictions were made using 2, 1.5, 1 and 0.5 years of the available longitudinal data of the individual child, starting at different ages. The predicted values of 210 boys and 162 girls were compared to the child's own original values of the PGV. The individual differences were compared to differences obtained when using the generic growth velocity curve as a standard. Using 2 years of data as input for the model, all predictions of the age of the PGV in boys and girls were significantly better in comparison to using the generic values. Using only 0.5 years of data as input, the predictions with a starting age from 13 to 15.5 years in boys and from 9.5 to 14.5 years in girls were significantly better. Similar results were found for the predictions of the magnitude of the PGV. This model showed highly accurate results in predicting the individual age and magnitude of the PGV, which can be used in the treatment of patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.
预测青少年特发性脊柱侧凸患者的峰值生长速度对于确定该疾病的预后和（手术）治疗时机至关重要。到目前为止，还没有找到一种准确的方法来预测个体儿童青春期生长突增的时间和幅度。本研究建立了一个数学模型，将个体部分生长速度曲线与通用生长速度曲线联系起来。通用曲线沿着年龄轴和身高速度轴进行平移、拉伸或收缩。个体的年龄和 PGV 幅度可从新预测的完整生长速度曲线上获得。使用个体 2 年、1.5 年、1 年和 0.5 年的可用纵向数据，从不同的年龄开始进行预测。将 210 名男孩和 162 名女孩的预测值与 PGV 的原始值进行比较。将个体差异与使用通用生长速度曲线作为标准获得的差异进行比较。使用 2 年的数据作为模型的输入，与使用通用值相比，男孩和女孩 PGV 年龄的所有预测都显著提高。仅使用 0.5 年的数据作为输入，从 13 岁到 15.5 岁开始的男孩和从 9.5 岁到 14.5 岁开始的女孩的预测结果明显更好。PGV 幅度的预测也得到了类似的结果。该模型在预测个体 PGV 的年龄和幅度方面显示出了高度准确的结果，可用于治疗青少年特发性脊柱侧凸患者。
