Predictors of anterior and posterior wall carotid intima media thickness progression in men and women at moderate risk of coronary heart disease.

BACKGROUND

The rate of carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) progression has been widely used in clinical trials as a surrogate marker for subclinical atherosclerosis.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate relationships between coronary heart disease (CHD) risk markers and progression of CIMT in patients at moderate CHD risk.

METHODS

Participants included men (45-75 years) and women (55-74 years) in the control arm of a clinical trial. All had at least one major CHD risk factor and baseline posterior wall CIMT 0.7-2.0 mm, without significant stenosis. Posterior (n = 134) and anterior wall (in a subset, n = 72) CIMT were assessed with B-mode ultrasound at baseline and 12 and ∼18 months. Fasting lipoprotein lipid, apolipoprotein (Apo), inflammatory, and oxidative stress markers were evaluated.

RESULTS

Baseline CIMT was inversely associated (P < .001) with CIMT progression. After adjustment for baseline CIMT, significant predictors of anterior wall CIMT progression in linear regression analyses included glucose (P = .044), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C, inverse, P = .006), triglycerides (TG, P = .006), and ratios of total cholesterol (TC)/HDL-C (P = .013), TG/HDL-C (P = .005), and Apo B/HDL-C (P = .021). Posterior wall CIMT progressed on average, whereas anterior wall CIMT regressed (0.0078 vs -0.0164 mm/year, P = .014). Significant baseline CIMT-adjusted predictors of posterior wall CIMT progression included TC (P = .028), low-density lipoprotein-C (P = .035), non-HDL-C (P = .004), TG (P = .016), Apo B (P = .005), and ratios of TC/HDL-C (P < .001), TG/HDL-C (P = .015), Apo B/Apo AI (P = .012) and Apo B/HDL-C (P = .004).

CONCLUSION

The strongest predictors for CIMT progression in anterior and posterior walls were lower baseline CIMT, increased TG, and elevated ratios, including TC/HDL-C, TG/HDL-C and Apo B/HDL-C.