Modeling vehicle emissions in different types of Chinese cities: importance of vehicle fleet and local features.

We propose a method to simulate vehicle emissions in Chinese cities of different sizes and development stages. Twenty two cities are examined in this study. The target year is 2007. Among the cities, the vehicle emission factors were remarkably different (the highest is 50-90% higher than the lowest) owing to their distinct local features and vehicle technology levels, and the major contributors to total vehicle emissions were also different. A substantial increase in vehicle emissions is foreseeable unless stronger measures are implemented because the benefit of current policies can be quickly offset by the vehicle growth. Major efforts should be focused on all cities, especially developing cities where the requirements are lenient. This work aims a better understanding of vehicle emissions in all types of Chinese cities. The proposed method could benefit national emission inventory studies in improving accuracy and help in designing national and local policies for vehicle emission control.