Leonard Susan Hautaniemi, Deane Glenn D, Gutmann Myron P
University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
Popul Environ. 2011 Jun 1;32(4):287-317. doi: 10.1007/s11111-010-0118-9.
Recent debate in the literature on population, environment, and land use questions the applicability of theory that patterns of farm extensification and intensification correspond to the life course of farmers and to the life cycle of farm families. This paper extends the debate to the agricultural development of the United States Great Plains region, using unique data from 1875 to 1930 that link families to farms over time in 25 environmentally diverse Kansas townships. Results of multilevel statistical modeling indicate that farmer's age, household size, and household structure are simultaneously related to both the extent of farm operations and the intensity of land use, taking into account local environmental conditions and time trends as Kansas was settled and developed. These findings validate farm- and life cycle theories and offer support for intergenerational motivations for farm development that include both daughters and sons. Environmental variation in aridity was a key driver of farm structure.
近期有关人口、环境和土地利用的文献争论,对农场扩张与集约化模式对应农民生命历程及农户家庭生命周期这一理论的适用性提出了质疑。本文将这一争论扩展至美国大平原地区的农业发展,运用1875年至1930年的独特数据,这些数据将堪萨斯州25个环境多样的乡镇中不同时期的家庭与农场联系起来。多水平统计建模结果表明,考虑到堪萨斯州在开发过程中的当地环境条件和时间趋势,农民年龄、家庭规模和家庭结构同时与农场经营规模和土地利用强度相关。这些发现验证了农场和生命周期理论,并为包括女儿和儿子在内的农场发展代际动机提供了支持。干旱程度的环境差异是农场结构的关键驱动因素。