Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, Connecticut 06269, USA.
Am Nat. 2011 Jul;178(1):30-43. doi: 10.1086/660295.
Species distribution models are a fundamental tool in ecology, conservation biology, and biogeography and typically identify potential species distributions using static phenomenological models. We demonstrate the importance of complementing these popular models with spatially explicit, dynamic mechanistic models that link potential and realized distributions. We develop general grid-based, pattern-oriented spread models incorporating three mechanisms--plant population growth, local dispersal, and long-distance dispersal--to predict broadscale spread patterns in heterogeneous landscapes. We use the model to examine the spread of the invasive Celastrus orbiculatus (Oriental bittersweet) by Sturnus vulgaris (European starling) across northeastern North America. We find excellent quantitative agreement with historical spread records over the last century that are critically linked to the geometry of heterogeneous landscapes and each of the explanatory mechanisms considered. Spread of bittersweet before 1960 was primarily driven by high growth rates in developed and agricultural landscapes, while subsequent spread was mediated by expansion into deciduous and coniferous forests. Large, continuous patches of coniferous forests may substantially impede invasion. The success of C. orbiculatus and its potential mutualism with S. vulgaris suggest troubling predictions for the spread of other invasive, fleshy-fruited plant species across northeastern North America.
物种分布模型是生态学、保护生物学和生物地理学的基本工具，通常使用静态现象学模型来识别潜在的物种分布。我们证明了用空间显式、动态机制模型来补充这些流行模型的重要性，这些模型将潜在分布和实现分布联系起来。我们开发了基于网格的、面向模式的传播模型，纳入了三种机制——植物种群增长、局部扩散和远距离扩散，以预测异质景观中的广泛传播模式。我们使用该模型来研究 Celastrus orbiculatus（东方胡颓子）通过 Sturnus vulgaris（欧洲椋鸟）在北美东北部的传播。我们发现，与过去一个世纪的历史传播记录有极好的定量一致性，这些记录与异质景观的几何形状和所考虑的每种解释机制密切相关。在 1960 年之前，胡颓子的传播主要是由发达和农业景观中的高增长率驱动的，而随后的传播则是通过扩展到落叶林和针叶林来介导的。大面积连续的针叶林可能会极大地阻碍入侵。C. orbiculatus 的成功及其与 S. vulgaris 的潜在共生关系，表明对于其他肉质果实入侵植物物种在北美东北部的传播，存在令人不安的预测。
