Division of Biology, Alfred University, New York, USA.
Am J Primatol. 2011 Oct;73(10):1041-50. doi: 10.1002/ajp.20970. Epub 2011 Jun 15.
Understanding which life-history variables have the greatest influence on population growth rate has great ecological and conservation importance. Applying models of population regulation and demographic mechanisms can aid management and conservation of both wild and captive populations. By comparisons of sensitivity, elasticity, and life-table response analyses, we identified demographic processes that were most likely to produce changes in population size (via prospective analyses) and the traits that actually influenced population changes (via retrospective analyses) among sexes, zoological facilities, and generations of captive squirrel monkey populations (Saimiri sciureus). Variation in life-history traits occurs within each group analyzed. Those traits that vary the most include age at maturity, age at last reproduction, and fertility. Zoos with increasing population growth rates maintain earlier ages of maturity, later ages of last reproduction, high rates of juvenile and adult survival, and most importantly greater fertility, reflecting shorter inter-birth intervals. Using prospective analyses, juvenile and adult survivals were predicted to be demographic traits with the greatest effect on population growth. Surprisingly, and despite predictions, retrospective analyses revealed that fertility was the life-history characteristic trait that contributed the most to changes in population size.
了解哪些生活史变量对种群增长率的影响最大,具有重要的生态和保护意义。应用种群调节模型和人口统计机制可以帮助管理和保护野生和圈养种群。通过对敏感性、弹性和生命表响应分析的比较,我们确定了最有可能导致种群数量变化的人口统计学过程(通过前瞻性分析),以及实际影响种群变化的特征(通过回顾性分析),这些特征存在于性别、动物设施和几代圈养松鼠猴种群(Saimiri sciureus)之间。每个分析组内都会发生生活史特征的变化。变化最大的特征包括成熟年龄、最后繁殖年龄和生育率。种群增长率不断增加的动物园保持较早的成熟年龄、较晚的最后繁殖年龄、较高的青少年和成年存活率,最重要的是更高的生育率,这反映了生育间隔更短。通过前瞻性分析,青少年和成年存活率被预测为对种群增长率影响最大的人口统计学特征。令人惊讶的是,尽管有预测,但回顾性分析表明,生育率是对种群数量变化贡献最大的生活史特征。