Takizawa T, Ito T, Kosuge M, Tanaka T, Mizumura Y
Natl Inst Anim Health Q (Tokyo). 1978 Winter;18(3-4):170-5.
The authors conducted a computer simulation with their Models G-1 and G-2 for Gumboro disease ten times in each of the following initial conditions: (1) size of population, 50, 100, and 1,000 chickens; (2) age of housing, 1, 7, 14, and 21 days; (3) nine levels of parentally conferred immunity in one-day-old chicks; (4) four levels of virus contamination; and (5) three steps of coefficient for aggravating morbid status. Every simulation was operated up to the age when all the birds of a flock turned to be insusceptible so as to yield the daily numbers of chickens (1) susceptible, (2) diseased, (3) immunized, and (4) removed, and (5) the accumulation of diseased chickens. The innate resistance, parentally conferred immunity, virus contamination, and morbid status were expressed in such values that they could be compared with one another. As a result, Model G-2 produced a more realistic epizootic pattern than Model G-1, but both models concealed the effect of differences in size of population and in age of housing. Notwithstanding the incompleteness of the models, the computer simulation gave valuable information for a further advancement in this series of studies.
作者使用他们的G - 1和G - 2模型针对传染性腔上囊病进行了计算机模拟，在以下每种初始条件下各进行了十次：(1)鸡群数量，50只、100只和1000只；(2)饲养日龄，1天、7天、14天和21天；(3)一日龄雏鸡中亲代赋予免疫的九个水平；(4)病毒污染的四个水平；以及(5)病情加重系数的三个级别。每次模拟一直运行到鸡群中所有鸡都变得易感的年龄，以得出每日(1)易感鸡、(2)患病鸡、(3)免疫鸡和(4)被清除鸡的数量，以及(5)患病鸡的累计数量。先天性抵抗力、亲代赋予的免疫力、病毒污染和病情状态都以可相互比较的值来表示。结果，G - 2模型产生了比G - 1模型更符合实际的流行模式，但两个模型都掩盖了鸡群数量和饲养日龄差异的影响。尽管模型存在不完整性，但计算机模拟为这一系列研究的进一步推进提供了有价值的信息。
