School of Aquatic and Fishery Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195, USA.
J Hered. 2011 Sep-Oct;102(5):567-76. doi: 10.1093/jhered/esr060. Epub 2011 Jun 22.
Molecular parentage permits studies of selection and evolution in fecund species with cryptic mating systems, such as fish, amphibians, and insects. However, there exists no method for estimating the number of offspring that must be assigned parentage to achieve robust estimates of reproductive success when only a fraction of offspring can be sampled. We constructed a 2-stage model that first estimated the mean (μ) and variance (v) in reproductive success from published studies on salmonid fishes and then sampled offspring from reproductive success distributions simulated from the μ and v estimates. Results provided strong support for modeling salmonid reproductive success via the negative binomial distribution and suggested that few offspring samples are needed to reject the null hypothesis of uniform offspring production. However, the sampled reproductive success distributions deviated significantly (χ(2) goodness-of-fit test p value < 0.05) from the known simulated reproductive success distribution at rates often >0.05 and as high as 0.24, even when hundreds of offspring were assigned parentage. In general, reproductive success patterns were less accurate when offspring were sampled from cohorts with larger numbers of parents and greater variance in reproductive success. Our model can be reparameterized with data from other species and will aid researchers in planning reproductive success studies by providing explicit sampling targets required to accurately assess reproductive success.
分子亲缘关系允许对具有隐蔽交配系统的多产物种（如鱼类、两栖类和昆虫）进行选择和进化研究。然而，当只能对一部分后代进行采样时，尚不存在一种方法可以估计必须分配亲缘关系的后代数量，以实现对繁殖成功率的稳健估计。我们构建了一个两阶段模型，该模型首先根据鲑鱼鱼类的已发表研究来估计繁殖成功率的平均值 (μ) 和方差 (v)，然后从 μ 和 v 估计值模拟的繁殖成功率分布中抽样后代。结果强烈支持通过负二项式分布对鲑鱼繁殖成功率进行建模，并表明只需要很少的后代样本即可拒绝后代均匀产生的零假设。然而，抽样的繁殖成功率分布与已知的模拟繁殖成功率分布存在显著差异（卡方拟合优度检验 p 值<0.05），偏离率通常 >0.05，高达 0.24，即使为数百个后代分配了亲缘关系也是如此。通常，当从具有更多父母和更大繁殖成功率方差的后代群体中抽样时，繁殖成功率模式的准确性会降低。我们的模型可以用来自其他物种的数据重新参数化，并且可以通过提供准确评估繁殖成功率所需的明确抽样目标，为研究人员规划繁殖成功率研究提供帮助。
