Department of Medicine, Division of Infectious Diseases, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, North Carolina 27713, USA.
Int J Tuberc Lung Dis. 2011 May;15(5):700-2. doi: 10.5588/ijtld.10.0480.
In 2009, the United States experienced a record drop in its tuberculosis (TB) case rate, coinciding with a major economic downturn. To investigate this relationship, we modeled short-term changes in gross domestic product, unemployment, and immigration as predictors of TB incidence. We also correlated each state's 2009-2010 change in unemployment with its 2008-2009 change in TB incidence. Although economic factors did not explain the decline, the 2009-2010 change in unemployment negatively correlated with incidence. We hypothesize that factors related to increased unemployment, such as diagnostic delay, may have played a role in the sudden drop in TB case rates.
2009 年,美国的肺结核(TB)发病率创历史新低,恰逢严重的经济衰退。为了研究这种关系,我们构建了国内生产总值、失业率和移民作为肺结核发病率预测因子的短期变化模型。我们还将每个州 2009-2010 年失业率的变化与 2008-2009 年肺结核发病率的变化相关联。尽管经济因素并不能解释这种下降,但 2009-2010 年失业率的变化与发病率呈负相关。我们假设与失业率增加相关的因素,如诊断延迟,可能在肺结核发病率的突然下降中起了作用。