Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies, University of Tasmania, Hobart, Tasmania 7001, Australia.
Ecol Appl. 2011 Jun;21(4):1380-98. doi: 10.1890/09-1564.1.
The worldwide decline of coral reefs threatens the livelihoods of coastal communities and puts at risk valuable ecosystem services provided by reefs. There is a pressing need for robust predictions of potential futures of coral reef and associated human systems under alternative management scenarios. Understanding and predicting the dynamics of coral reef systems at regional scales of tens to hundreds of kilometers is imperative, because reef systems are connected by physical and socioeconomic processes across regions and often across international boundaries. We present a spatially explicit regional-scale model of ecological dynamics for a general coral reef system. In designing our model as a tool for decision support, we gave precedence to portability and accessibility; the model can be parameterized for dissimilar coral reef systems in different parts of the world, and the model components and outputs are understandable for nonexperts. The model simulates local-scale dynamics, which are coupled across regions through larval connectivity between reefs. We validate our model using an instantiation for the Meso-American Reef system. The model realistically captures local and regional ecological dynamics and responds to external forcings in the form of harvesting, pollution, and physical damage (e.g., hurricanes, coral bleaching) to produce trajectories that largely fall within limits observed in the real system. Moreover, the model demonstrates behaviors that have relevance for management considerations. In particular, differences in larval supply between reef localities drive spatial variability in modeled reef community structure. Reef tracts for which recruitment is low are more vulnerable to natural disturbance and synergistic effects of anthropogenic stressors. Our approach provides a framework for projecting the likelihood of different reef futures at local to regional scales, with important applications for the management of complex coral reef systems.
全球范围内的珊瑚礁衰退威胁着沿海社区的生计，并使珊瑚礁提供的宝贵生态系统服务面临风险。迫切需要对珊瑚礁和相关人类系统在替代管理情景下的潜在未来进行强有力的预测。了解和预测数十至数百公里的区域尺度上珊瑚礁系统的动态至关重要，因为珊瑚系统通过物理和社会经济过程在区域之间以及经常在国际边界上相互连接。我们提出了一个通用珊瑚礁系统生态动力学的空间显式区域尺度模型。在将我们的模型设计为决策支持工具时，我们优先考虑便携性和可访问性；该模型可以针对世界不同地区的不同珊瑚礁系统进行参数化，并且模型组件和输出对于非专业人员来说是可以理解的。该模型模拟局部尺度的动态，这些动态通过珊瑚礁之间的幼虫连通性在区域之间耦合。我们使用中美洲珊瑚礁系统的实例来验证我们的模型。该模型真实地捕捉到了局部和区域生态动力学，并以捕捞、污染和物理破坏（例如飓风、珊瑚白化）等外部胁迫的形式做出响应，从而产生的轨迹在很大程度上落在实际系统中观察到的范围内。此外，该模型还表现出与管理考虑相关的行为。特别是，珊瑚礁局部地区幼虫供应的差异驱动了模型珊瑚礁群落结构的空间变异性。繁殖率低的珊瑚礁更容易受到自然干扰和人为胁迫因素协同效应的影响。我们的方法为在局部到区域尺度上预测不同珊瑚礁未来的可能性提供了一个框架，对于复杂珊瑚礁系统的管理具有重要应用。
