[长沙甲型H1N1流感大流行的时空过程及影响因素]

[Spatio-temporal process and the influencing factors on influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha].

作者信息

Xiao Hong, Tian Huai-yu, Zhao Jian, Zhang Xi-xing, Zhu Pei-juan, Liu Ru-chun, Chen Tian-mu

机构信息

College of Resources and Environment Science, Hunan Normal University, Changsha, China.

出版信息

Zhonghua Liu Xing Bing Xue Za Zhi. 2011 Jun;32(6):587-92.

PMID:21781478

Abstract

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the spatio-temporal process on 2009 influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in Changsha and the influencing factors during the diffusion process.

METHODS

Data were from the following 5 sources, influenza A (H1N1) pandemic gathered in 2009, Geographic Information System (GIS) of Changsha, the broad range of theorems and techniques of hot spot analysis, spatio-temporal process analysis and Spearman correlation analysis.

RESULTS

Hot spot areas appeared to be more in the economically developed areas, such as cities and townships. The cluster of spatial-temporal distribution of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic was most likely appearing in Liuyang city (RR = 22.70, P < 0.01). The secondary cluster would include districts as Yuelu (RR = 6.49, P < 0.01), Yuhua (RR = 81.63, P < 0.01). Xingsha township appeared as the center in the Changsha county (RR = 2.90, P < 0.01) while townships as Yutangping (RR = 19.31, P < 0.01), Chengjiao (RR = 73.14, P < 0.01) and Longtian appeared as the center in the west of Ningxiang county (RR = 14.43, P < 0.01) and Wushan as the center in the Wangcheng county (RR = 13.84, P < 0.01). As time went on, the epidemic moved towards the eastern and more developed regions. Regarding factor analysis, population, the amount of students, geographic relationship and business activities etc. appeared to be the key elements influencing the transmission of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic. At the beginning of the epidemic, population density served as the main factor (r = 0.477, P < 0.05) but during the initial and fast growing stages, it was replaced by the size of students to serve as the important indicator (r = 0.831, P < 0.01; r = 0.518, P < 0.01). However, during the peak of the epidemics, the business activities played an important role (r = -0.676, P < 0.01).

CONCLUSION

Groups under high risk and districts with high incidence rates were shifting, along with the temporal process of influenza A (H1N1) pandemic, suggesting that the protection measures need to be adjusted, according to the significance of influencing factors at different stages.

摘要

目的

分析2009年甲型H1N1流感大流行在长沙的时空传播过程及其扩散过程中的影响因素。

方法

数据来源于以下5个方面，2009年收集的甲型H1N1流感大流行数据、长沙地理信息系统（GIS）、热点分析、时空过程分析及Spearman相关性分析等广泛的定理和技术。

结果

热点地区多集中在经济发达的城镇地区。甲型H1N1流感大流行时空分布的聚集最可能出现在浏阳市（RR = 22.70，P < 0.01）。其次的聚集区包括岳麓区（RR = 6.49，P < 0.01）、雨花区（RR = 81.63，P < 0.01）。长沙县以星沙镇为中心（RR = 2.90，P < 0.01），宁乡县西部以喻家坪镇（RR = 19.31，P < 0.01）、城郊镇（RR = 73.14，P < 0.01）和龙田镇为中心，望城县以乌山镇为中心（RR = 13.84，P < 0.01）。随着时间推移，疫情向东部及更发达地区蔓延。在因素分析方面，人口、学生数量、地理关系和商业活动等似乎是影响甲型H1N1流感大流行传播的关键因素。疫情初期，人口密度是主要因素（r = 0.477，P < 0.05），但在初期快速增长阶段，学生数量取代其成为重要指标（r = 0.831，P < 0.01；r = 0.518，P < 0.01）。然而，在疫情高峰期，商业活动起重要作用（r = -0.676，P < 0.01）。