Collaborative Autonomic Computing Laboratory, School of Computer Science, University of Electronic Science and Technology of China, Chengdu, China.
Risk Anal. 2012 Feb;32(2):304-18. doi: 10.1111/j.1539-6924.2011.01657.x. Epub 2011 Jul 30.
This article extends the previous research of consecutive attacks strategy by assuming that an attacker observes the outcome of each attack imperfectly. With given probabilities it may wrongly identify a destroyed target as undestroyed, and wrongly identify an undestroyed target as destroyed. The outcome of each attack is determined by a contest success function that depends on the amount of resources allocated by the defender and the attacker to each attack. The article suggests a probabilistic model of the multiple attacks and analyzes how the target destruction probability and the attacker's relative resource expenditure are impacted by the two probabilities of incorrect observation, the attacker's and defender's resource ratio, the contest intensity, the number of attacks, and the resource distribution across attacks. We analyze how the attacker chooses the number of attacks, the attack stopping rule, and the optimal resource distribution across attacks to maximize its utility.
本文通过假设攻击者对每次攻击的结果观察不完全，对连续攻击策略的先前研究进行了扩展。攻击者可能会错误地将已被摧毁的目标识别为未被摧毁，或者错误地将未被摧毁的目标识别为已被摧毁。每次攻击的结果由一个竞赛成功函数决定，该函数取决于防御者和攻击者在每次攻击中分配的资源量。本文提出了一个多攻击的概率模型，并分析了不正确观察的两个概率、攻击者和防御者的资源比例、竞赛强度、攻击次数以及攻击之间的资源分配如何影响目标破坏概率和攻击者的相对资源支出。我们分析了攻击者如何选择攻击次数、攻击停止规则和最优的攻击之间的资源分配，以最大化其效用。
