Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Medical Centre Alkmaar, The Netherlands.
Am J Perinatol. 2012 Mar;29(3):231-6. doi: 10.1055/s-0031-1285098. Epub 2011 Aug 1.
We sought external validation of a prediction model for the probability of a successful external cephalic version (ECV). We evaluated the performance of the prediction model with calibration and discrimination. For clinical practice, we developed a score chart to calculate the probability of a successful ECV. We studied 320 women undergoing ECV, of which 117 (37%) were successful. The model underestimated the success rate by 4 to 14%. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was moderate (0.66; 95% confidence interval: 0.60 to 0.72), but the model was able to make good distinction between women with a higher predicted probability of a successful ECV (more than 50%) compared with women with a lower predicted probability of a successful ECV (less than 20%). Our model to predict the outcome of ECV holds in external validation. It can be used to support patient counseling and decision making for ECV in singleton term breech presentations.
我们寻求一种预测外部翻转术（ECV）成功率的预测模型的外部验证。我们通过校准和区分来评估预测模型的性能。为了临床实践，我们开发了一个评分图表来计算 ECV 成功的概率。我们研究了 320 名接受 ECV 的女性，其中 117 名（37%）成功。该模型低估了成功率 4 到 14%。受试者工作特征曲线下的面积为中等（0.66；95%置信区间：0.60 至 0.72），但该模型能够很好地区分具有较高 ECV 成功率预测概率（高于 50%）的女性与具有较低 ECV 成功率预测概率（低于 20%）的女性。我们预测 ECV 结果的模型在外部验证中成立。它可以用于支持单胎臀位分娩时 ECV 的患者咨询和决策。
