Helmholtz Centre Potsdam GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ-German Research Centre for Geosciences), Section 5.2-Climate Dynamics and Landscape Evolution, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Science. 2011 Aug 5;333(6043):743-7. doi: 10.1126/science.1203724.
Interannual rainfall variations in equatorial East Africa are tightly linked to the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with more rain and flooding during El Niño and droughts in La Niña years, both having severe impacts on human habitation and food security. Here we report evidence from an annually laminated lake sediment record from southeastern Kenya for interannual to centennial-scale changes in ENSO-related rainfall variability during the last three millennia and for reductions in both the mean rate and the variability of rainfall in East Africa during the Last Glacial period. Climate model simulations support forward extrapolation from these lake sediment data that future warming will intensify the interannual variability of East Africa's rainfall.
赤道东非的年际降雨变化与厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）紧密相关，在厄尔尼诺年降雨较多且洪水泛滥，而在拉尼娜年则出现干旱，这两种情况都对人类居住和粮食安全产生严重影响。在这里，我们报告了肯尼亚东南部一个每年分层的湖泊沉积物记录，该记录提供了过去三千年中与 ENSO 相关的降雨变化的年际到百年尺度的变化证据，以及在末次冰期期间东非地区的降雨平均速率和变化率都有所减少的证据。气候模型模拟支持从这些湖泊沉积物数据进行向前推断，即未来的变暖将加剧东非降雨的年际变化。
